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Monsoon will be normal in July;sticking to our forecast

Heavy rainfall in Nashik

New Delhi: Even as India Meteorological Department predicted deficient rainfall in July, Skymet, a private weather agency, today stuck to its forecast of “normal” monsoon in the month.

The agency has said the north, east and west India will receive normal rainfall but the southern peninsular may not witness the same.

“We think July is going to be normal, albeit it is going to start on a weak note.  Our initial April forecast was 104% of normal for the month. And we are sticking to that.

“In July, I think the winners will be north, east, west and central India. South/Peninsular India could be at a loss. More specifically, there is a risk of prolonged dry weather in North interior Karnataka and South interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Marathwada,” Jatin Singh, CEO Skymet, said.

IMD has predicted 8% and 10% deficient rainfall in July and August.

He also dismissed the notion that there will be long dry spell in July and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that helped good rainfall in June will also help good precipitation in the second half of this month.

“A long break is being feared in July. We disagree. We don’t think there is going to be a “typical” break, but we think monsoon will take a breather between the 2nd and 6th of July. We think there are three spells in July (6-8,14-17,23-26) and a fourth around July 31 and August 2 which might spill into August.

“The first spell between 6-8 July will be concentrated in North, Central and East India,” Singh added.

He said although the El-Nino phenomenon is strong this is a “peculiar event” and the Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon is neutral, which is a positive sign.

“It set in September-October-November 2014, then weakened in February and subsequently increased again. The years 1986-87 that saw back-to-back drought and El Nino years had seen a consistent rise in the Nino index, which is not the case this year.

“The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presently neutral and is on track to becoming positive in August. This is favourable for monsoon.” he said.

Singh added that June was the best monsoon season in a decade.

Rejecting fears of a drought, he said “2015 could now only be a drought if both July and August end up with an average deficiency for the two months of 20% or more. This is highly unlikely. If July, August and September are down by 8,10, and 20% respectively, even then the season as whole will not be a drought.”

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